Investment talk at SGX

I attended an investment talk at SGX today, it was more of a career talk than an investment talk. I should have read the program before registering. It was an insightful talk though. The speakers were employees in OCBC bank holding various positions. There was an investment analyst, dealer and a banker. They introduce their job scope and their experiences in the fiancial sector.

Whenever it comes to investment talks, I am always interested to listen to the market outlook as well as the stock recommendation. Anyway, the last part of the talk is about the market outlook. The speaker's name did sound familiar. I think I heard her interview over Bloomberg before. I think Bloomberg is awesome, most news you need to know about the market is there.

Some of my opinions in investing.
Looking back at my trades, I've been lucky in some instances.
For example, Keppel land. I took the risk buying it at the bottom and it brought be proud returns, exercised my rights, giving me one more lot(not that I own alot). The price soared over the next 9 months(that why I think investing is like watching a baby grow) and I'm currently seating on a 200% paper gain(its not a profit until its sold). I know its not alot to some traders who make large percentages of money over a short period of a few days or weeks. In fact, I could have sold it 1 month - 3 month later and get a profit of 60-150%.
But I guess I was emotional, Keppel land has a special place in my heart as my first stock. Beyond that, I feel that its price can still rise somemore and even if it doesn't I can still take dividends. Currently at its price of $3.3, its still far from its high at $8.30. I know I probably cannot climb any higher since they recently issued dividends which means that the stock value is diluted. But if we look at the PE and PB ratios, the price is still reasonable.
XOMG!!!! How can I emo over a stock?!?!?!? Its not like its my girlfriend or something, this is going to drive my FAN GIRLS cRaZy!!!

But I learnt that its not those shares that you do well in that you learn alot from. Rather, it those shares that you lose money that you learn something from. Okay, This part sounds awfully depressing, its not like I lost any money, its just that the stocks that I buy tend to drop the next day after I buy it(damn). My portfolio is currently making me 88% returns.(I'm not trying to brag, I just don't want people to try to console me).

My opinion is that under this current market condition, as long as you bought blue chips, mid-cap or large cap, when the index breaks a certain resistance level, the price of the blue chips will rise. However, the tricky issue is when the market is consolidating. The price of the stock can go either way, it can both rise and fall dramatically during this period, depending on factors from the market or that sector.

I know to value investors short run is not an issue. In fact, all value investors ignore short run fluctuations and focus on the long run. With fundamental analysis, we are able to evaluate and determine if a company is undervalued or not. From there we expect the market to be mean reverting in the long run, meaning that the market will tend towards the mean as time tends to infinity. This is how we look at the market from a macro perspective. However, from means that the market will change from undervalue to fair valued to overvalued in the short-run. Fundamental analysis does tell you where the mean or in this case the fair value is, but it fails to tell us how long will it take for the market to reach this long run.

Well, no one can predict when and how the market will move. The market is governed by multiple factors, such as economic factors and market sentiment. My experience is that no matter how good the fundamentals are, if you enter when when there is excessive negative sentiment, you are bound to face certain losses in the short-run. If you enter when the momentum suddenly lose steam, price is bound to drop. Of course, in the long-run it doesn't matter, but in the long-run we are all dead.
I find it very depressing when I buy a stock and the next day it drops dramatically. Hence, I propose a solution, which is to identify a company using fundamental analysis, but I'll use technical analysis to determine the entrance and exit points for the stock.

I haven't exactly bought any stocks using this method, I'm trying it out with some conpanies I have in mind. There are a variety of technical analysis tool and indicators, but I find the MACD and RSI rather suitable to my strategy. There are probably experts out there using this method already, probably I come across anything teaching this strategy, but I'll try to fine tune it myself.